(This column originally appeared in Forbes)
Robots are getting smarter, faster and more capable. But if you’re worried they’ll take your job anytime soon, you’re probably overestimating what they can actually do. The reality is this: robots thrive in controlled environments but many jobs aren’t controlled.
Just this past week robot maker Boston Dynamics announced that it has incorporated AI technology from Google’s DeepMind to power its Spot robot dogs. Spot can prowl around construction sites and manufacturing facilities and do things like count inventory, inspect hazardous areas, perform safety checks, alert for any open doors and water on the floor. Spot doesn’t really talk or behave like a human. And for about $75K-$150K it’s a little pricy for many companies — but the technology has improved significantly in a very short time and DeepMind will take this robot to another level.
Robots Are Everywhere
Robots are popping up everywhere. I see them price checking items and looking for empty shelves in Giant food stores. Or flipping burgers at White Castle and other restaurants. Amazon, Toyota and other big companies are using robots for sorting, packing, welding, insertions, lifting and transporting in their warehouses and production facilities. Walmart is sinking hundreds of millions into autonomous forklifts. Fearless and intrepid little robot carriers are attempting to deliver food in Philadelphia. The media is full of robots doing things like assisting architects, patrolling historical sites and helping people to switch on lights, make phone calls and open doors.
Elon Musk’s much anticipated Optimus robot promises to handle industrial tasks such as sorting battery cells, moving materials, and assisting with manufacturing tasks while at home it would do domestic tasks including cleaning, carrying objects, cooking (e.g., stirring a pot), and organizing. And let’s not even get into how the military is — and plans to — use robots in warfare (think killing machines and you’re on the right track.)
Today’s Robots Face Many Obstacles
But let’s not let things get over-hyped. Robots are being deployed where tasks are predictable and repeatable. Robots will transform work — but only in structured environments. Most jobs are far messier than people think.
Even Bob Christopher, the CEO of Richtech Robotics who makes robots that does everything from mixing drinks to cleaning floors, says that there’s still a long way to go before robots take over the world.
“We’re within the capability range of doing those tasks,” he said. “But I don’t believe the price points for a contractor to hire 10 robots to do work for them is within reach at this very moment.”
Robots still have to operate in a controlled environment. That’s because the processing needed for a robot to think and behave like a human is enormous. Like a human, a free-wheeling machine would have to make countless split-second decisions and the hardware just isn’t ready to handle that level of intense calculations. Factors in the environment around the robot would have to be taken in, digested, analyzed, evaluated and acted upon in microseconds. This is what the human brain does. A robot brain would likely need to have data from the cloud and very powerful chips doing the work on the ground and the speed required to enable the back-and-forth exchange of information — although faster than before — remains very limited right now.
Robots Are Very Limited
Christopher says that the problem isn’t making the robots move around. It’s making them understand what’s around them. Robots still can’t perform in an uncontrolled, messy, changing environment. Adapting to the movements of a production floor or construction site is still not reality. Christopher points out that today’s robots function best when in a repeatable, structured environment where the work is predictable, such as serving drinks, moving from place A to place B and encountering few obstacles in its path.
“The goal in robotic development is for the machine to able to grab something that’s appropriate and do the right thing with it,” he said.
Today’s robots are still a long way from using their “hands” in the way a human does. Though progress is being made, they still can’t fold clothes or handle delicate or irregular objects. Which means that Musk has a long way to go before getting that home robot doing the laundry. In the workplace, robots don’t have the dexterity to lay pipes, put up drywall, wire a building or frame up a room. Many owners of construction firms I know are facing a dire shortage of labor in the few years, what with immigration pressures and an aging population. They’d love to buy a good carpenter or machinist robot not to replace their workers but to do the work that they can’t find anyone else to do. That day is still years away.
Robots Will Be Doing More In The Next Few Years
Because of all these barriers, no one can predict when robot technology will truly be able to replace the human brain and physical body. It could be five years. It could be 10 years or even more.
For now, robots can follow instructions but still don’t understand the big picture, or why it’s doing the work. Firms are pretty close to do doing this, but not all the way. And the price point for getting even near this goal is still too high to be commercialized. Right now the ROI of using a robot only works for specific, repeatable tasks. It’s still early days, but Bob says things are moving fast.
“I’ve been doing this for a while and I’m seeing the advancements happen so quick right now… it’s amazing,” he said.
Will robots ultimately be good enough to replace humans? Probably someday, but not anytime soon. For Christopher, the long-term vision is more of a collaboration, not a replacement.
“I want our robots to work well with labor… in the right conditions,” he said. “We have to be good stewards of the relationship between people and robots.”
Robots will change how work gets done. But for the foreseeable future, they’ll be tools, not replacements.
