(This column originally appeared in The Hill)
Sometimes I wonder whether running a shop, restaurant or other small business during ancient times was easier than today. Sure, there was plague, war, excessive taxation and the occasional pillaging and salting of the earth. Communications were a lot slower. Basic accounting must have been a bear. But in those days, the reign of emperors and kings and caesars lasted, in most cases, for years, even decades. People in business could deal with that.
Not so much today.
In our 21st century democracy, we have major national elections every two years and local elections more frequently. And in these days of frequent political disruption, each election can bring with it new politicians that turn upside down the rules and regulations enacted by their immediate predecessor. Think Donald Trump after Joe Biden. Think Zohran Mamdani after Eric Adams. And start thinking about the 2026 midterms.
Throughout history, entrepreneurs have always dealt with uncertainty. Back in the day it was invading hordes, assassinated emperors, slave revolts, the Gracchi brothers. Today, in most countries — and especially in this one — it’s an almost annual shifting of political winds. I own a small business. I advise small businesses. This is not easy.
Take tariffs, for example.
With just a few exceptions, my firm’s clients, and the many business owners I speak to at manufacturing, distribution, construction and service association conferences, don’t complain so much about tariffs. They’ve proven they are smart, innovative and resilient enough to navigate their businesses around the higher rates they’re facing under Trump. They’re shifting inventory to bonded warehouses, finding new suppliers, altering their assemblies, changing their pricing, mixing up materials and cutting other expenses. Smart managers can deal with this, as long as they know what they’re dealing with. And that’s been their biggest problem.
Since taking office, Trump has frequently changed his mind on tariffs. Small businesses buying products from China saw rates fluctuate between 25 percent to 145 percent. Canadian and Mexican goods were singled out for double-digit levies. India’s tariffs have risen to 50 percent but are still “under negotiation.” Europe’s rates have varied country by country, targeting products from steel and iron to lumber to semi-conductors.
When will this end? Not any time soon. The president’s policies are now facing a serious challenge in the Supreme Court, but no matter — if that fails, the administration has more tricks up its sleeve. “We can walk and chew gum and the same time,” said Trump’s press secretary over the summer. Buckle up, business owners. This ride is far from over.
Is this legal? Do we comply? Imagine you’re a business trying to deal with these changes. How do you price your products? How do you calculate margins?
“Just decide on a tariff rate and I’ll figure out how to price it,” one client said to me. “But when you change the rules mid-way through the game it makes things much more difficult.”
I hear this a lot. And it’s not just tariffs.
Major tax reform passed in 2017 faced complete expiration this year and was saved by making permanent some big deductions for businesses, like pass-through entities and equipment spending. But we all know nothing’s permanent in this world; the fight will almost certainly resume in a few years. And the government shutdown has pushed guidance on many of these new rules into the next year, leaving businesses and their accountants confused.
The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission under the Biden administration issued sweeping rules that held employers accountable for discrimination and harassment of their employees both — and this is true — in and out of the office. The new administration not only swept those rules away, it issued new rules that effectively make any business willing to offer DEI programs or opportunities to under-privileged classes a crime.
The Department of Labor during the last administration changed how we classify workers and proposed significant increases to overtime pay. That was reversed. The National Labor Relations Board gave more power to the unions, which resulted in many businesses lawyering up to defend themselves, only to be effectively made rudderless once a new president took office in January.
Millions of immigrants flowed into the country, many used by small businesses to do the work no other resident wanted to do. Now those same immigrants are being hunted like animals, with even those with the proper documentation afraid to come to work. Don’t believe me? Spend a few days in border towns like Pharr, Texas, like I recently did, and you’ll see how tough it is to find workers.
Oh, and add AI to the mix. Big companies are spending hundreds of millions on a technology that has so far resulted in a 95 percent failure rate, wrong more than 30 percent of the time. But every expert east of San Francisco warns us that small companies must drink the AI Kool-Aid or die otherwise from lack of technological innovation. Do we invest? Do we hold ground? I’m going to run my business on this stuff? No one really knows.
I don’t want to sound like I’m complaining. Business owners today have much for which to be grateful. We can run our companies from our homes, quickly find talent around the world, invoice our customers and pay our bills on our phones, subscribe to technologies that make us look bigger than we are and process paperwork and get our numbers faster than our parents and grandparents could have ever dreamed.
But the relentless political and technological uncertainty that we’re dealing with today is like never before. Today’s business owner doesn’t fear the Goths, Hessians or Vandals. But we do fear the regulations, executive orders and legislation that the next political party will roll out when they inevitably take office.
