(This column originally appeared in The Washington Times)
Tariffs. Inflation. Labor shortages. Interest rates. Tech challenges. Economic uncertainty. These are all issues that small businesses are facing this year. Yet a lot of things are going right for us. How do I know this?
I‘m a small-business owner, and I speak at more than 50 industry associations annually and to thousands of business owners and managers who make corrugated containers, distribute industrial tubes, construct commercial buildings and install overhead doors. It’s never great. There are always problems, challenges and uncertainty. Welcome to the world of business ownership.
For the most part, here’s what I’m seeing and hearing firsthand from all the people I meet: A lot of things are going well for small businesses like mine in the U.S. as we hit midyear. Don’t believe my feet-on-the-ground reporting? Then please check out these recent reports.
The economy is good
For starters, we continue to see a thriving economy. The Wall Street Journal reports that the global economy is “powering” through a historic increase in tariffs (bear in mind that the WSJ editorial staff has been critical of the president’s tariffs).
“Trade volumes are buoyant, stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic have rebounded to record highs and growth forecasts from Europe to Asia are being raised,” The Journal cites Goldman Sachs. “Investment, manufacturing employment, spending and overall activity all held up globally. Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, says that in the U.S., households’ net worth “remains high by historical standards as a share of disposable income, potentially allowing consumers to continue spending despite higher prices.”
In yet another report, The Journal says that the U.S. economy is “regaining its swagger.” To wit: “The stock market is reaching record highs. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which tumbled in April to its lowest reading in almost three years, has begun climbing again. Retail sales are up more than economists had forecast, and sky-high inflation hasn’t materialized — at least not yet.”
Pay and hiring remain steady
Despite all the concerns about a slowing economy and deportations of workers, pay and hiring seem fine. Wages continue to grow faster than inflation, with typically high-paying occupations such as electrical engineering, legal and marketing driving the strength and showing a “resiliency of small businesses given the amount of uncertainty they faced so far this year.” Human resources firm Paychex reports that job growth among U.S. small businesses with fewer than 50 employees is “holding steady,” with hourly earnings growth for small-business workers maintaining a “consistent trend.”
“Our latest employment data points to a small-business labor market that has remained consistent, including wages continuing below 3%, while workers have begun to see an increase in hours worked in July for the first time since August 2024,” said John Gibson, Paychex’s president and CEO.
Surveys are positive
A new survey from CNBC shows that “after a significant decline in small business confidence in the second quarter amid President Trump’s tariffs policy pronouncements, nearly half of small business owners (46%) now say that the economy is ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ up from 30% in Q2. Twenty-four percent of small business owners who are Democrats describe the economy as good or excellent, up from 8% in Q2. There was a similar increase among Republican small business owners, with 67% having a positive view of the economy, 15 points higher than in the previous quarter.”
Other surveys also show continued good news.
For example, Umpqua Bank’s 2025 Business Barometer reports that U.S. businesses are showing a “steady outlook” amid tariff and economic uncertainty. Nearly half of businesses, including 60% of middle market companies and 44% of small businesses, expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months, a four-year high.
Financing firm Biz2Credit says that “despite the lingering threat of tariffs, interest rates that have not come down as expected, and higher structural costs, small business earnings continue to rise in 2025” with average monthly earnings increasing to $62,300 in June, up markedly from May and continuing a “positive run for earnings, nearly doubling since the beginning of the year.”
The National Federation of Independent Businesses said in its closely watched survey that small-business optimism “remained steady” in June while “uncertainty fell,” with its index coming in “slightly above” its 51-year average.
Tax and other regulations favor small businesses
Meanwhile, nearly 100% of the business owners I speak to are happy with the new tax and spending bill, which permanently makes significant deductions or pass-throughs permanent for capital equipment purchases, research and development costs and other business expenses. That adds to new incentives to build manufacturing plants and for investors to sink their money into small businesses operating in opportunity zones that qualify under tax code Section 1202.
Businesses are enjoying the recent “wave of deregulation” affecting their workplaces. According to law firm Fisher Phillips, “The U.S. Department of Labor just quietly launched one of the most sweeping deregulatory efforts in recent memory, advancing over 60 proposals that could reshape workplace rules across industries. From overtime and minimum wage exemptions to cuts in affirmative action and workplace safety oversight, the July 1 rollout is being called one of the most ambitious federal red tape rollbacks in recent decades.”
New businesses continue to explode
According to recent data from the Census Bureau, new business applications continue to be at historically high levels. Americans “have been creating new businesses ‘like crazy’ ever since the early days of the pandemic,” and the trend continues.
This is not to completely praise the Trump administration, although it deserves much credit. The president has created significant uncertainty with his erratic tariff negotiations. His taunts at the Fed chairman raise concerns. His tax and spending bill could fuel further deficits, pressure inflation and interest, or raise health care costs even more. His offhanded remarks may cause conflicts at home and overseas that could hurt economic growth. Who knows? All or some of this could happen.
Despite these things, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand what’s happening in my world. All it takes is talking with the thousands of contractors, manufacturers, retailers, distributors and service providers I talk with all year round. They want lower taxes. They want fewer regulations. They want to know that their political leaders are creating an environment so that they can invest, spend and grow. They know that life isn’t perfect. They understand that running a business means dealing with uncertainty. Yet for now, and looking ahead the next year or two, they can be pretty certain that they will generally be left alone to take care of their employees and their families and worry about their business risks, with fewer headaches from their elected officials.
This is what’s happening right now. I’m seeing it with my own eyes. Now you’re reading it with yours.
